Future Blog | What does the future of food production look like?

Text by Roosa Halonen.

Project Manager Roosa Halonen from Forum Virium Helsinki’s smart city team examines the challenges of the current food system, alternative food production futures, and the role of cities and municipalities in building a sustainable food system in this blog post.

Where Did the Cows Go?

My childhood summer vacation memories of cottage trips include grazing cows wandering in lush, hilly meadows. The landscape then felt somehow more detailed and diverse. The soundscape blended the buzzing of bees, the occasional lowing of cows, and the chirping of grasshoppers. Young house martins made bold curves in the air, catching insects.

As an adult, traveling the same cottage road, I’ve noticed a change in the landscape: grazing cows are no longer visible, and many small farms have ceased operations. I can’t help but wonder what impact this change has on people’s relationship with nature and their understanding of food origins. Unreasonable consumption is easier when food consumption is distanced from its sources – we no longer look into the eyes of the animal we eat. A ground meat package doesn’t remind us of its origins, and the contents of our shopping cart don’t reveal the environmental impacts of production chains.

My master’s degree in landscape studies has deepened my understanding of the interaction between humans and the environment, and my work experience as a cook has strengthened my understanding of food. My continuing education in circular economy has further reinforced my understanding of the importance of considering soil health and utilising local nutrient cycles in food production.

My motivation as a food system expert stems from a desire to make visible the impacts of food production on biodiversity, and the environment, and to influence the regional food system. Global challenges are solved locally – that’s how I think. I want to be a part of building a system where biodiversity, animal welfare, and ecological sustainability are at the center.

Image pair of agricultural landscape change in Nurmijärvi’s Uusikylä from 2001–2017.

Image source: Visual landscape monitoring / Tapio Heikkilä.

Food System Challenges – Structural Change and Land Use Impacts

The food system refers to the entire food chain from production to consumption and related socioeconomic, political and cultural dynamics. It can be local, national, or global and affects the environment, economy, and society. A sustainable food system produces food ecologically, economically, and socially sustainably, ensuring food security and quality without depleting natural resources or degrading the environment.

Although EU membership and opening of markets has improved many food security issues, the development has had its downsides. In Finland, agricultural structural change has led to increased farm sizes, simplified landscapes, and rural depopulation. Most village shops – and then village schools – have closed their doors. The closure of many small farms and the concentration of production in ever larger units have fundamentally reshaped agriculture and rural areas. The price of this structural change has been not only the disappearance of farms but also the homogenisation of rural landscapes, the weakening of local food systems, and the thinning of village communities. Even larger production units are often not economically sustainable. Has centralisation been a sustainable solution in the long term?

Landscapes have also changed in urban and city centers. In addition to the aforementioned structural change, land use directly and indirectly affects landscapes and how trade and business are organized in an area. Street-level shops have disappeared from cities as well.

Although zoning and its various levels – regional plans, master plans, and partial master plans – can create conditions for a functional and mixed community structure, it has become clear that centralization trends in both production and land use are visible in both rural and urban centers. In Finland, even small towns are zoned for commercial centers where anchor companies, through their contract practices or monopoly positions, can effectively prevent or hinder small direct sales representatives or smaller grocery retailers from entering the market in these premises or commercial centers.

However, regions and central retail groups vary, and some retailers are particularly welcoming to local products – even actively highlighting them. For example, in Eastern Finland, central retail spaces have reportedly been used for direct sales by small producers without the expensive intermediary of retail trade. This is a significant step forward in making local food available and strengthening the market position of smaller players.

Should we now, at a time when our food production is increasingly vulnerable to ecological, economic, and geopolitical risks, work towards a more decentralised, diversified, and self-sufficient production model – one where all eggs aren’t in one basket?

Xiaoli Shao and entrepreneur Tapani Tuominen founded a dumplings restaurant on Vaasankatu in Helsinki after the success of a local food kiosk experiment organized by the project, where the popularity of vegan dumplings was surprising. “The restaurant concept was first tested in Hakaniemi Market Hall, from which word spread. The experiment was conducted in collaboration with Helsingin Kaupunkitilat Oy,” says Tuominen. Image: Ananya Tanttu.

Food, the World’s Oldest Institution

Food can be considered the world’s oldest institution. In modern times, we have become so accustomed to our daily bread that we no longer understand the journey of food from farm to fork, let alone the political and socioeconomic dynamics influencing our food system. When shopping for food, it’s good to remember that what we take for granted now might not be the case in 30 years. Our choices can make a difference.

The future can be better understood and navigated when we understand the past and recognize the societal forces we live under. The so-called regime thinking put forward by a group of Finnish food system researchers identifies the way societal systems are organized, maintained by certain institutional rules.

The current food regime, or prevailing operating method, is characterized by standardized production, centralized commerce, high consumption of animal products, and a growing trade between nations and regions. The food system is dominated by large, centralized production models. It is also heavily dependent on fossil fuels and external inputs like nutrients. 

Our current food system seems to be reaching its limits. At least a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions are linked to food. Nearly 80 percent of marine and freshwater eutrophication is due to agriculture. Insect decline and the degradation of soil organisms and fertility are linked to industrial agriculture.

Although in our current food regime there is talk of sustainability transition, our food resilience has taken a hit. This has happened before. In Finland’s seven historical regime shifts (from the 14th century to the present), the scale has ranged from years of famine to breadlines. Regime shifts have tended to build on the vulnerabilities of the previous regime. The transition to a new one has often occurred only out of necessity, when the inevitable has already happened. It’s crucial not to try to solve problems with the same methods that caused them in the first place. Various innovations have usually enabled breaking away from the old regime.

Cities and Municipalities as Strengtheners of Food System Sustainability

It’s paradoxical that while food production has moved further away from consumption, most of the produced food is consumed in urban areas (estimated that by 2050, 80 percent of produced food will be consumed in cities).

At the same time, the concentration of consumption in cities and municipalities presents an opportunity, and cities and municipalities have been recognised globally as significant enablers of the food system. In practice, the role of cities, municipalities, and regions in implementing the food transition is to act as procurers, support the structural change of primary production by targeting public procurement towards sustainable food procurement, and thereby promote shorter, more sustainable, and local food chains. Some actions for implementing a more sustainable food system can be achieved through municipalities’ basic services.

Cities can also market responsible restaurants and local food offerings, promoting sustainable consumption. For example, in February 2019, Helsinki City Council decided to halve the use of dairy and meat products in the city’s food services by 2025.

Urban areas or regions can influence the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, where it would be essential to view primary production primarily as a livelihood rather than a subsidy issue, and support primary production in becoming regenerative and sustainable.

Managing food waste in municipal food services is a significant factor in promoting a sustainable food system. Additionally, campaigns for residents to reduce food waste and comprehensive food education, awareness, engagement, and information support the development of informed food citizenship.

The role of municipalities in preparing for societal disruptions is increasingly important. In the future, the importance of food resilience, security of supply, and self-sufficiency will be further emphasised, requiring long-term planning and the strengthening of regional food chains.

Perho Culinary, Tourism & Business College, a co-implementer of the Urban&Local project, continues long-term work in the project to embed sustainable development and gastronomy into restaurant, tourism, and business education. Perho’s sustainable future learning environment, Green City Farm, serves as an experimental platform in the project. Several Helsinki restaurants offer seasonal flavors from this urban field. Image: Roosa Halonen.

Forum Virium Helsinki Involved in Bringing Sustainable Local Food to the City

As a project manager in Forum Virium Helsinki’s Urban&Local – Future Sustainable Food Ecosystem project, I have been involved in promoting market access and improving the negotiating position of food entrepreneurs, small producers, and processors by increasing dialogue between procurers and providers, as well as with authorities and legislators. We have also conducted diverse experiments in urban spaces.

In autumn 2023, Forum Virium experimented with a new kind of short-term market hall operation at Hakaniemi Market Hall with the “Urban&Local Local Food Kiosk.” In 2024, food was one of Helsinki’s key event and tourism themes. The goal of the “Edible Helsinki” event year was to strengthen Helsinki’s recognition and image as a distinctive food city. A key focus of the food year was the development and piloting of food-themed event and content concepts.

As part of the Edible Helsinki event year, the Urban&Local project engaged with Helsinki’s diverse food and beverage offerings in autumn 2024 by organizing two market events. At these experimental market events, small and local food companies, breweries, and restaurants gained a foothold in a traditional marketplace for their innovative or back-to-roots food and beverage products. We wanted to explore how markets can better serve as distribution channels for local food and promote the availability of seasonal products.

At the “Sobar Autumn Fest,” the market was transformed into Finland’s first non-alcoholic and low-alcoholic alternative outdoor bar. “Young adults no longer drink alcohol like previous generations, and the rise of new, high-quality non-alcoholic beverages is significant, also in Finland,” summarizes event producer and media artist Timo Wright.

The “Wild Food Revolution – Mushroom Fest” and the “Great Mushroom Dinner” brought together mushroom enthusiasts and restaurateurs. Mushrooms were represented in all forms of art, food, and education. The event featured mushroom dishes, mushroom books, baskets, knives, and preparations for sale. “We want to bring mushrooms to people’s awareness, tables, and plates – the possibilities are almost limitless,” says Jyrki Tsutsunen, the wild food and cultural chef behind the idea.

The event was attended by an estimated 1,000 visitors, and further events are planned.

In spring 2025, the “Small Producers’ Path to Food Services” event brought together representatives of public food services and other procurers who want to increase the use of small, local, and organic products, as well as small producers and processors interested in becoming suppliers to food services.

In September 2024, the “Great Mushroom Dinner” was held at Hakaniemi Market Square as part of the “Wild Food Revolution – Mushroom Fest,” led by cultural chef Jyrki Tsutsunen. Photo: Ananya Tanttu.

Food Policy Input for Helsinki’s City Strategy

In addition to concrete experiments and dialogue and stakeholder events, the Urban&Local project has provided perspectives for the preparation of Helsinki’s next city strategy.

To promote sustainable food policy, we have also offered drafting suggestions for the vision work on the “Uusimaa Regenerative Food System” and have been in active dialogue with authorities and legislators regarding the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy and the planning of the upcoming CAP period.

Local, Technological, or Global? The Future of Food Production on the Scale

What are the alternative futures and drivers of change that will guide our food system in the coming years? What will the future food regime, or the prevailing way the food system operates, look like?

Three main prevailing theories can be seen in the development of the food system. One of them is the globalisation regime, which is based on the current model. It is characterized by concentrated and standardized production, trade, and industry, where the proportion of animal products is significant and the consumption of imported foods is increasing.

This food regime relies on large-scale production models and fossil fuels and external inputs such as nutrients. The model emphasizes efficiency and volume but can also weaken local food security and ecosystem sustainability.

The agroecological regime refers to a self-sufficient and sustainable food system. It is characterized by a diverse and partly small-scale farm model with some processing. Key features include diversification, decentralization, localization, and regenerative farming practices. Instead of relying on fossil inputs, there is a shift towards utilizing local and renewable energy sources. The challenge of this model is its high labor input, which can limit widespread adoption.

The wildest future visions are related to the electricity regime, or the high-tech food system. In this model, agriculture is decoupled from soil and animal stock by utilizing automation, robotics, advanced technology, the internet, indoor farming solutions, and cellular agriculture. In this technological food system, where energy and electricity process food in a new way, the consumption of natural resources – such as land, water, and fertilizers – can be significantly reduced. Additionally, production can be almost emission-free if electricity is obtained from renewable sources.

The key advantage of the electricity regime is the minimization of labor input and production efficiency, and it largely operates on industrial principles.

The model’s weaknesses include still unknown environmental impacts, high electricity demand, and difficult-to-predict ecological loads. Furthermore, the electricity regime does not support biodiversity but may even further reduce ecosystem diversity.

The “Small Producers’ Path to Food Services” event organized by the Urban & Local project brought together procurers and providers. At the event, representatives of public food services met small, local, and organic producers interested in becoming part of food service procurement chains. Photo: Vesa Laitinen.

From Global to Local Food Production

We cannot know the future, but we know that the desired direction of development cannot be predicted or achieved solely as a continuation of past trends and habits. The probable future lies between different regimes. My vision for the future is that global problems are solved locally.

Self-sufficient agroecological production and the high-tech solutions complement and diversify the prevailing global food system and can both contribute towards sustainability transition. This creates a need for new business thinking, innovative farming techniques, and, on the other hand, revisiting lost knowledge.

As previously stated, a city or municipality can support the market entry of smaller players through zoning, land policy, and by organizing and supporting food markets or other direct sales events where local producers and consumers have the opportunity to meet and enjoy fresh, responsibly produced food. Such actions help create more open markets and strengthen local business.

The organisational model of a sustainable food system requires breaking away from current actions and unsustainable practices. Only with bold and innovative choices can we build a food system that serves us, future generations, and other living beings, both in rural and urban areas.

Sources:

• “Alternative Futures of the Finnish Food System,” Research Tuesday 4.6.2024, Food Sector Coordination Project. Irene Kuhmonen, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Jyväskylä.
• “What Will We Eat Tomorrow? Perspectives on the Impacts of Your Food Choices” online training 2021, POLKU 2.0 project.
• “Tasting Future Technologies” webinar 22.1.2025, Finnish Society of Food Science and Technology.